The votes are in the EVMs; the final-phase rallies are over, and West Bengal is now in a state of high suspense. On May 4, the world will finally know whether Mamata Banerjee secures a fourth consecutive term or if the BJP, led aggressively by Suvendu Adhikari, manages to breach the TMC's long-held fortress. As the state waits, three very different kinds of indicators have emerged. None is scientifically foolproof, but together they paint a fascinating picture of a political contest that could go down to the wire.
The Exit Poll Puzzle: Data Points to a Cliffhanger
If you look strictly at the numbers, most exit polls released on April 29 and 30 points toward a change of guard. Out of eight major surveys, six predicted Mamata Banerjee's ouster, while only two projected a TMC return to power. However, the projections vary so wildly that they leave room for almost any outcome.
On one end of the spectrum, pollsters like Praja Poll and Today's Chanakya give the BJP a decisive edge, estimating saffron seats anywhere between 178-208 and 181-203 respectively. On the other end, agencies like Janmat and People's Pulse see the TMC not just winning but sweeping, with projections placing Mamata Banerjee's party comfortably above the 148-seat majority mark.
Most other surveys fall somewhere in the middle, suggesting a tight, photo-finish contest. For example, the average of multiple polls collected in a "poll of polls" gave the BJP around 158 seats, and the TMC 130 seats—a wafer-thin majority for the saffron camp. Matrize predicted 146-161 seats for the BJP against 125-140 for the TMC, while P-Marq projected a slightly stronger saffron wave, forecasting 150-175 seats for the BJP.
Perhaps the most telling detail about this year's exit polls is what they themselves admit. A key pollster, Axis My India, chose to skip releasing projections for Bengal entirely, citing an unprecedented 70 per cent refusal rate from voters asked to participate in the survey. This high "non-response bias" raises the possibility that the polls might be missing crucial segments of the electorate—a mistake that famously played out in 2021.
The Sharp Memory of 2021: Why Everyone Is Cautious
This brings us to the one factor that makes everyone—from political analysts to the betting markets—adopt a cautious tone: history. The 2021 West Bengal Assembly election stands as a landmark lesson in the fallibility of exit polls.
Back then, the average exit polls suggested a close contest, estimating the TMC at about 156 seats and the BJP around 121 seats. Some polls even gave the BJP a narrow majority. When the actual votes were counted, the results were dramatically different. Mamata Banerjee's TMC stormed to a landslide victory, winning 215 seats, while the BJP was reduced to a mere 77 seats. The exit polls had underestimated the TMC by an average of 61 seats and overestimated the BJP by 49 seats. This colossal miss is the ghost that haunts every pollster and pundit today, serving as a powerful reminder that final mandates in Bengal are often far more decisive than pre-count surveys suggest.
A Market of Saffron and Green: The Bara Bazar Gulaal Indicator
Perhaps the most unique and visually striking indicator of Bengal's political mood comes not from statistical models but from the dusty wholesale lanes of Bara Bazar in North Kolkata. Here, the sale of gulaal (colored powder) has become an annual election ritual. Saffron is indelibly associated with the BJP, while green is the color of the TMC. The thinking is simple: whichever party's cadre feels more confident will stock up on their respective color in anticipation of a victory celebration.
This year, the shelves at Bara Bazar are telling a very clear story. Wholesalers report a massive, unprecedented surge in demand for saffron gulaal. Babulal Mehnot, a veteran trader who has been in the business for decades, described the trend as a stark. According to him, nearly 90 per cent of the current demand is for saffron, with green accounting for barely 10 per cent. The imbalance has become so sharp that some traders claim to have halted the production of green gulaal entirely, with their existing stock lying unsold.
While this is hardly a scientific election metric—markets can reflect enthusiasm that doesn't translate into votes—it is a potent indicator of cadre confidence. The saffron surge suggests that BJP workers are actively preparing to celebrate, while the muted demand for green hints at either low morale or a cautious, perhaps overconfident, TMC camp. A "wind of change" is how some local shopkeepers describe the mood.
The Odds on Polymarket: A Global Investor's Pulse
Moving from the physical lanes of Kolkata to the digital realm of global prediction markets, another indicator emerges: Polymarket. This US-based platform allows users to bet real money on political outcomes, aggregating thousands of individual predictions into a live, market-driven probability.
According to the latest trading data, the race in West Bengal is one of the tightest on the platform. The odds have been fluctuating, but as of late April, they showed the Bharatiya Janata Party holding a narrow edge, with a winning probability hovering around 52 per cent. The TMC trailed very closely at 47-48 per cent. This effectively translates into a margin of just 4-5 percentage points. While the BJP's money trail is slightly stronger, the market is essentially pricing in a coin-flip result, which aligns with the broader sense of uncertainty.
Across the wider ecosystem of betting markets, the trend is similar. The informal, underground "Phalodi Satta Bazar" in Rajasthan—a traditional, if unscientific, gauge of political sentiment—has also revised its projections sharply. Before the final phases of voting, the market favored the TMC significantly. However, after the record high voter turnout and the release of the exit polls, the odds flipped. Phalodi's latest revision now gives the BJP around 150-152 seats and the TMC 137-140 seats, further reinforcing the narrative of a BJP advantage.
The Battle on the Ground: Record Turnout and Allegations
Behind all the polls and markets is the story of the voters themselves. The 2026 Bengal election saw a record-shattering turnout. The final figure is expected to be around 92.47 per cent, the highest polling rate in any West Bengal Assembly election since Independence. Such immense participation makes the mandate particularly powerful but also harder to predict.
The campaign ended with high drama. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee dismissed the exit polls as fabricated, driven by the BJP's instructions, and confidently predicted that the TMC would form the government with more than 226 seats. Her party also raised serious allegations about the security of EVM strongrooms, leading to protests and heightened tensions in the final days before counting. The BJP, on the other hand, has pointed to the high turnout and their lead in surveys as proof of the people's desire for "poriborton" (change).
Conclusion: A State Poised on a Knife's Edge
So, who did Bengal vote for? The only honest answer right now is no one knows for certain. The traditional metric of exit polls points toward a BJP victory, but the ghost of 2021 injects a massive dose of skepticism. The unconventional but intriguing "gulal" market is a sea of saffron, indicating a confident saffron cadre. The global betting boards, meanwhile, are bracing for a photo-finish, placing slightly better odds on the BJP.
What all three indicators agree on is that this is a deeply polarized, fiercely contested election, perhaps the closest in Bengal's recent history. The 90% plus turnout suggests that the electorate has spoken with clarity and purpose. Until the EVMs are opened on May 4, the answer to the question—"Modi or Mamata?"—will remain hidden, making this not just a political verdict, but the culmination of months of intense campaign and a true test of whether surveys can ever truly capture the will of the people.
